Financial Crisis

  • Broken Trust

    January 27th, 2017 by ewalsh

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    At this year’s World Economic Forum gathering in Davos, Switzerland, PR firm Edelman shared its comprehensive annual Trust Barometer, confirming what we all know: global trust in institutions and leaders is at an all-time low.  Fully two-thirds of countries are now considered “distrusters” (under 50% trust in the mainstream institutions of business, government, media and NGOs to do what is right), compared to about half a year ago.  This is a stunning collapse in trust, even from last year’s low base.

    Trust in leadership is equally low. Only 37 percent of the general population believe CEOs are credible, even worse for government officials – 29 percent credible.  A paltry 15 percent believe the system is working.  Ironically, it was Chinese Premier Xi, in his first address at Davos, who stood in defense of globalization (quoting Abraham Lincoln, it should be said), arguing that the system is sound, but it is (Western democratic) governance that has failed.  Note China ranked second on the trust index, second only to India.

    Talk about a humbling moment (if that’s possible) at the annual gathering of the global economic and political elite.

    There was lots of talk this year at Davos about “inclusive capitalism” (Jack Ma actually puts substance behind the slogan in his must-watch interview — a great example of Alibaba’s seemingly regenerative business model in service to its network partners rather than extracting from them, and a sharp contrast to Amazon’s model, as Ma explains).  But the “inclusive capitalism” talk included little honest analysis of the root cause of this stunning collapse in trust, why it is so dangerous (the rise in extreme forms of authoritarian populism rooted in emotion more than evidence and its unpredictable path), and what if anything can be done about it at this late date.  Nobel Economist Joseph Stiglitz wrote a prescient piece on this topic in 2013, and called for strong regulation and bold regulators to enforce the laws.  Clearly, we have failed.  And without a culture that not only values trust but demands it, I am not optimistic about better regulation and stricter enforcement.

    The decline in trust pervades all four institutions studied in the Edelman survey. Unfortunately, Edelman did not single out finance and report on it separately from business.  Surely few would doubt that the finance sector (Wall Street mega banks, in particular) would rank at the bottom of the trust barometer within the business category.  In fact, research confirms that bankers are more likely to cheat than the rest of us. (As a former banker, this is upsetting to me!)

    Nothing defines banking’s breach of public trust better than the 2008 financial collapse.  Being told to move on, It is easy to forget how much of the world’s current social and economic woes can be traced to the financial bubble and subsequent 2008 systemic collapse, either directly or indirectly.

    Recall that the financial collapse destroyed $19 trillion of economic value in the U.S. alone, permanently destroying the economic security of millions of families across America.  An estimated 34 million jobs were destroyed globally in the process.

    The rise of today’s dangerous brand of authoritarian populism—manifesting first in Brexit and now Trump—is directly connected to Wall Street’s breach of trust.  It’s not just because of “globalization” or “technology” taking our jobs as if it were all inevitable.  We cannot forget that compounding and exacerbating these legitimate and complex challenges, and more (climate change-induced drought driving immigration, linked to the Syrian carnage comes to mind) was the willful act of dropping a bomb into an already vulnerable society.  The Goldman Sachs/John Paulson Abacus trade was the Hiroshima of modern financial history.

    The mortgage fiasco was a massive, reckless act of violence, perpetrated upon global society by an industry failing in its critical purpose while instead proving itself willing to do just about anything to make grotesque profits through fraud and egregious deceit.  The efficient market narrative of bringing home ownership to the masses was all a cynical cover.  And the industry’s ongoing fraudulent activities post the crisis, from the LIBOR scandal to FX price rigging, to wrongful foreclosure with robo-signers to Wells Fargo’s opening millions of fake accounts out of its “community banking” division of all places (where the do-gooders are supposed to work), sealed the fate of the industry as devoid of trust for some time to come, unfair as that may be for the many honest bankers out there.

    Blaming populism on bankers’ unparalleled breach of trust is a strong claim.  But think about it:

    Less speculative finance, less speculative real estate lending.  Less boom created from unsustainable misallocation of human, physical, and financial capital to speculative real estate. Less wasted carbon in the atmosphere and less farmland destroyed, exacerbating the drought-driven migrations.  Less unearned wealth for bankers and less resulting inequality, and less power for the sector to rig the rules, buy off and brainwash the politicians and even regulators, resulting in asymmetric risks only the opportunist bankers truly understood.  (Trump once referred to the bankers—now his advisors—as “killers” on the campaign trail, and he’s had to cross them more than once, so he knows).   Less demand on the public sector to socialize the losses to “save the system” and therefore less public debt and no need for the misguided austerity driving society further into despair.  That means more resources available to address the consequences of globalization and automation, and greater acceleration of investment into the transition to renewable energy and into rebuilding our aging yet vital infrastructure.  More assets channeled into education, perhaps even into the revival of civics classes!  We know how this narrative continues.  We know it does not end with the election of a fraud to the most powerful office in the land.

    Donald Trump, whose ethics seem guided by the probability of winning lawsuits, is about as unlikely a remedy for broken societal trust as one can imagine, as his hopeful supporters are sadly about to learn.  Coal is not coming back, sorry.  So the consequences of lost trust will only amplify in dangerous and unpredictable ways that now stunningly include the Orwellian introduction of “alternative facts” into the Trump Administration’s everyday narrative.

    The so-called “activist investor” Carl Icahn is Trump’s fellow bully buddy and now Special Advisor on Regulatory Reform.  He has defended the need for Dodd-Frank banking reform in the past and held the banks responsible for the financial crisis in public statements.  That is a testament to his common sense and refreshing objectivity as a Wall Street insider.  Time will tell whether a man who has spent half a century as an opportunist (bully) stock speculator can come to see that an ideology that conflates speculation with investment and means (finance and the stock market) with ends (a healthy economy) can guide us to a more enlightened and still desperately needed financial system reform and begin the long process of rebuilding trust in Wall Street, and in the process within society.

    Not holding my breath.

  • How Finance Can Help Save Our Planet

    March 23rd, 2015 by John Fullerton

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    The following post was adapted from a chapter I wrote for John G. Taft’s new book, A Force for Good, published just this past week by Palgrave Macmillan. John is the CEO of RBC Wealth Management, and I am proud to be in the illustrious company of individuals like Mary Schapiro, Robert Shiller, Sheila Bair, Roger Martin, and Dominic Barton, who were invited by John to contribute to this book. I think you will find A Force for Good a fascinating read as it explores, from a variety of experienced perspectives, how the financial industry can marshall, for the long-term public good, the creative energies and brainpower it has deployed in the past to develop derivatives, high-frequency-trading technologies, and other engineering complexities.

    In 2011, the Economist declared that civilization had entered into what is known as the Anthropocene era – a geologic period in which human activity is altering the health of earth. The piece contended that if we continue to operate as we have, we will cause irreversible damage to the life-supporting systems of the planet. What the Economist failed to point out, however, was the critical role that finance plays in shaping this outcome. Our relentless pursuit of the exponential growth of financial capital, hardwired into our economic system, will bring us to the brink of collapse if we don’t change course. Science tells us that our planet, along with all of its complex, interconnected biochemical systems that enable life to exist, are fixed in scale. Yet our dominant economic theories assume that our path to prosperity requires limitless, undifferentiated, exponential growth of the economy’s metabolism – defined as raw materials in and waste materials out. The emergence of the Anthropocene era requires a seismic shift in our economy. We must transition to a more sustainable and inclusive economic system that serves the needs of people while respecting the earth’s physical limits. The financial crisis of 2008-09 provided us with the perfect impetus for this shift, prompting even mainstream economists to question as never before the very foundations of our finance-driven economic system. What they and policymakers should consider is a holistic approach that takes a deeper look into the practice of finance, and in particular, long-term decision making that affects the flow of trillions of dollars of real investment in the decades ahead. In this, the Anthropocene era, large-scale investment decisions simply must be considered a vital part of the public interest and on the agenda of an informed, democratic process. The top 1,000 global corporations represent half of the total market value of the world’s 60,000 public companies and, undoubtedly, an even greater share of capital investment budgets. What demands our attention, therefore, are the decades-long impacts of the capital expenditure decisions these larger corporations make. The same goes for the impacts of large government capital expenditures like investments in infrastructure. Corporations generally make their investment decisions using an internal rate of return framework that compares a project’s expected financial return with the firm’s cost of capital. Concerns about the systematic impact on social

    and natural capacity rarely enter the analysis. That must change. There are three possible paths – all interconnected – to prompt that shift:

    1. We can work within the existing economic paradigm to shift the flow of investment by making commercial enterprises begin to pay the true social and environmental cost of their operations and by subsequently passing those costs on to consumers;
    2. Business, government and large pools of private capital can begin leading, through enlightened real investment in resource productivity and alternative energy to save money and accelerate the shift to a Regenerative Economy; And
    3. The public can demand a new set of rules and regulations – some local, some regional, some global – to establish the necessary guardrails and mandates to force the transition.

    That said, the scale and complexity of the necessary shift in thinking is unparalleled and time is not on our side. No economic system in the history of civilization has ever had to contemplate such a restraint. But the sooner we acknowledge the implications of this immense challenge, the better.

  • High-Frequency Trading is a Blight on Markets. Tobin Tax Can Help.

    April 4th, 2014 by John Fullerton

    This blog post previously ran in The Guardian’s Business section.

    A tax on financial transactions can calm the frenzy of speculation fuelled by computer-driven >> Read more